What the first 90 days actually cost
Budget for sample stock, creator seeding, content production and a small ad test. A realistic UK launch runs a few thousand pounds a month for the first quarter, most of it in product going out for free and in shooting enough vertical content to keep the feed fed.
Cash flow is the constraint before profit is. Settlement lags delivery, samples go out before any revenue arrives and stock has to be paid for up front. Many shops that fail were profitable on paper and ran out of working capital in month two.
The milestones worth tracking
Week two, first organic sale from a creator video. Week six, ten or more creators posting in a month. Week ten, sales on days when you personally did nothing. That third milestone is the one that matters, because it means the affiliate flywheel is turning without you pushing it.
Track contribution margin per order weekly, including seeded stock amortised across the sales it produced. Gross merchandise value is vanity here. A shop doing £40,000 a month at 20 percent commission with heavy discounting can be losing money on every order.
When to stop
Give it one full quarter with real effort behind it. If after 12 weeks with 50 or more creator videos live you still have no repeatable seller, the product is wrong for the channel. Changing the price, the hook or the bundle is cheaper than another quarter of the same.
Some brands should walk away. If your average order value is high, your margin is thin and your buyer needs to think before purchasing, the maths will never work. Say so early and put the budget into a channel that suits the product.